Is the Liberal-China scandal the end for Justin Trudeau? Or will he escape this unscathed like every previous scandal?
It goes without saying that Canada’s Prime Minister has faced a lot of scandals. From SNC Lavalin to the Jody Wilson-Raybould fiasco, to blackface, private getaways, ethics breeches, and now alleged Chinese electoral interference. Any one of these scandals would have taken down other leaders or elected officials. So why is Justin Trudeau seemingly immune?
The secret to Justin Trudeau’s immunity to being removed as the leader of the Liberal Party previous to the Chinese story breaking is made up of three parts.
First, the Liberal Party has a minority government. In itself, a minority government would seem like a disadvantage. With a strong alliance with the federal NDP, the Liberals have allied themselves with someone who is even less willing to seek an election. The NDP knows that if Trudeau is removed, an election would be imminent. With a leader barely treading water in the polls and their war chest looking bare, the NDP is willing to protect Trudeau, and he knows it. The Liberal minority government has created an ally that is more effective at shielding the Prime Minister than a majority seat count ever could.
Second, political parties are not blind to the realities of voters’ intentions. This applies both to the Liberal Party, and to their allied party, the NDP. Neither party is doing well right now. The NDP has more power in an alliance with the Liberals to pass policies and enact changes. An election at this point would be tossing away the most power this party has ever had in Canadian history. The NDP would most likely lose seats if an election were called today.
The same goes for the Liberal Party. While the scandals are not enough to oust the leader, combined they are enough to see a trending drop in their popularity. After years of every Liberal MP defending Trudeau’s actions, his actions will stick to the party regardless of who is the leader.
Third, Pierre Poilievre is seemingly unstoppable. The leader of the Conservative Party of Canada won his leadership race with an insane margin normally reserved for dictators. He has – from all accounts – united the factions within the party and set them on a deadly accurate course aimed at winning the next election. His social media is engaging, and fresh, and he constantly brings up common issues that the everyday Canadian can relate to. This has sent the Conservative party on a trajectory that shows them trending ever upward in the polls. The Liberals need time to change the channel and time to get Canadians back on their side. They have put their trust in Trudeau who brought them out of the wilderness and back into power after years in opposition.
The Chinese interference scandal is much more involved than previous scandals and may finally spell the end for Trudeau. Previous scandals have been relatively contained to the person that is Justin Trudeau. Going on vacations, wearing different outfits, and giving contracts to friends have been seen as more minor in the eyes of Canadians. This time, the scandal is something the Liberals have been making a boogeyman of for years. Russian interference, American interference, and other various political entities causing electoral interference have been a go-to for the Liberal Party as an attack. Now, their words are being thrown back at them.
This time, Canada’s agency in charge of national defense, CISIS has provided evidence and pointed the finger at the Liberal Party. Chinese interference is not a boogeyman this time. CISIS has provided real evidence that is worrying Canadians. Add on top of it that Justin Trudeau’s family foundation received $200,000 from the Chinese government (which they recently refunded) which puts the Liberal leader seemingly at the center of Chinese Interference.
The only way the Liberal party can escape from this scandal is by ousting its leader and finding a new one who can blame the party’s past mistakes on Trudeau. It is a classic tactic recently seen in Alberta and can have a great impact on turning a party’s image around. If the Liberal Party decide to keep its leader and hope Canadians forget, they might get their wish as people have a short memory. But the gains that the Conservative party has made during this period will not be lost easily. The damage that the Chinese interference story has caused to the Liberal brand will stick with them regardless of what they do.
