About Sovereign North Strategies: Sovereign North Strategies is a strategic communications and marketing firm that specializes in delivering immediate and measurable results. Our team of experienced professionals provides tailored solutions, from campaign logistics and graphic design to data analytics, digital marketing, and public relations. We work closely with clients to understand their unique needs and objectives and deliver exceptional results. Our data analytics team worked on some of the most successful campaigns in the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom, applying data collection in the most impactful way possible.
Methodology: From May 8th to May 13th, Sovereign North Research surveyed 2,909 Albertans using a blend of Interactive Voice Response technology and SMS. A probability sample of 2,909 respondents has an approximate margin of error of +/- 1.8%, 19 times out of 20. The survey is intended to represent the voting population in Alberta.
Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding. This poll was commissioned by and is the exclusive property of Sovereign North Strategies. Any reproduction, in whole or in part, of this report or the data included here is explicitly prohibited without written authorization by Sovereign North Strategies.
ALBERTA PROVINCIAL ELECTION SURVEY
The results of this survey indicate that the NDP are trending upward, now holding a 5% lead. The NDP lead in Calgary (+3%) has remained steady, but they have made gains in Edmonton (+30%). The UCP lead in Northern Alberta (+6%), Central Alberta (+27%), and Southern Alberta (+16%). When asked which party leader they would prefer to see as Premier following the election, Rachel Notley (53%) now leads Danielle Smith (47%) by 6%, rising from 2% in the previous sample.
When asked if they have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of the party leaders, Notley has a net favourability of +7% (51% to 44%) while Danielle Smith has a net negative favourability of -16% (39% to 55%). Notley continues to have a net positive favourability in Calgary, Edmonton and Northern Alberta. Danielle Smith has a net positive favourability in Central Alberta. When asked about preferred election outcome, 45% of respondents stated that they would prefer either a UCP majority (42%) or a UCP minority (3%), falling from the previous week. 53% of respondents stated that they would prefer either an NDP majority (46%) or an NDP minority (7%).
*Numbers may not add up to 100% due to rounding
ALBERTA ELECTION VOTER PREFERENCE AS OF MAY 13, 2023
The results of this survey indicate that the NDP are trending upward, now holding a 5% lead.
The NDP lead in Calgary (+3%) has remained steady, but they have made gains in Edmonton (+30%). The UCP lead in Northern Alberta (+6%), Central Alberta (+27%), and Southern Alberta (+16%).
When asked which party leader they would prefer to see as Premier following the election, Rachel Notley (53%) now leads Danielle Smith (47%) by 6%, rising from 2% in the previous sample.
VOTER OPINION ON PARTY LEADERS
When asked if they have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of the party leaders, Notley has a net favourability of +3% (49% to 46%) while Danielle Smith has a net negative favourability of -10% (41% to 51%).
Danielle Smith has a net negative favourability in across Alberta.
Notley continues to have a net positive favourability across Alberta.
ELECTION OUTCOME PREFERENCE AMONGST VOTERS
When asked about preferred election outcome, 45% of respondents stated that they would prefer either a UCP majority (42%) or a UCP minority (3%), falling from the previous week. 53% of respondents stated that they would prefer either an NDP majority (46%) or an NDP minority (7%).
