Methodology: From May 22nd to May 26th, Sovereign North Research surveyed 3,053 Albertans using a blend of Interactive Voice Response technology and SMS. A probability sample of 3,053 respondents has an approximate margin of error of +/- 1.8%, 19 times out of 20.
The results of this survey indicate that the race continues to be too close to call, with the NDP holding a slim 2% lead, up 1% from our previous survey. The NDP lead in Edmonton (+22%), while the UCP lead in Calgary by 3%. The NDP have a narrow lead in Northern Alberta (+3%), and the UCP lead in Central Alberta (+11%), and Southern Alberta (+18%). When asked which party leader they would prefer to see as Premier following the election, Rachel Notley (52%) leads Danielle Smith (48%) by 4%.
When asked if they have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of the party leaders, Notley has a net favourability of +3% (50% to 47%) while Danielle Smith has a net negative favourability of -11% (42% to 53%). Notley has a net positive favourability in Edmonton. Danielle Smith has a net positive favourability in Southern Alberta. 47% of respondents stated that they would prefer either a UCP majority (44%) or a UCP minority (3%). 50% of respondents stated that they would prefer either an NDP majority (45%) or an NDP minority (5%).
*Numbers may not add up to 100% due to rounding
The results of this survey indicate that the race continues to be too close to call, with the NDP holding a slim 2% lead, up 1% from our previous survey.
The NDP lead in Edmonton (+22%), while the UCP lead in Calgary by 3%. The NDP have a narrow lead in Northern Alberta (+3%), and the UCP lead in Central Alberta (+11%), and Southern Alberta (+18%).
When asked which party leader they would prefer to see as Premier following the election, Rachel Notley (52%) leads Danielle Smith (48%) by 4%.
VOTER OPINION ON PARTY LEADERS
When asked if they have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of the party leaders, Notley has a net favourability of +3% (50% to 47%) while Danielle Smith has a net negative favourability of -11% (42% to 53%).
Notley has a net positive favourability across Alberta.
Danielle Smith has a net negative favourability across Alberta.
ELECTION OUTCOME PREFERENCE AMONGST VOTERS
48% of respondents stated that they would prefer either a UCP majority (45%) or a UCP minority (3%).50% of respondents stated that they would prefer either an NDP majority (44%) or an NDP minority (6%).
