Methodology: From May 13th to May 16th, Sovereign North Research surveyed 3,431 Albertans using a blend of Interactive Voice Response technology and SMS. A probability sample of 3,431 respondents has an approximate margin of error of +/- 1.7%, 19 times out of 20.
The results of this survey indicate that the race is too close to call, with the NDP holding a slim 2% lead, up 1% from our previous survey. The NDP lead in Edmonton (+21%), while the UCP lead in Calgary (+1%), Northern Alberta (+6%), Central Alberta (+17%), and Southern Alberta (+5%). When asked which party leader they would prefer to see as Premier following the election, Rachel Notley (53%) leads Danielle Smith (47%) by 6%.
When asked if they have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of the party leaders, Notley has a net favourability of +5% (50% to 45%) while Danielle Smith has a net negative favourability of -16% (39% to 55%). Notley has a net positive favourability in Calgary and Edmonton. Danielle Smith has a slim net positive favourability in Central Alberta. 45% of respondents stated that they would prefer either a UCP majority (42%) or a UCP minority (3%). 52% of respondents stated that they would prefer either an NDP majority (44%) or an NDP minority (8%).
*Numbers may not add up to 100% due to rounding
ALBERTA ELECTION VOTER PREFERENCE AS OF MAY 16, 2023
The results of this survey indicate that the race is too close to call, with the NDP holding a slim 2% lead, up 1% from our previous survey.
The NDP lead in Edmonton (+21%), while the UCP lead in Calgary (+1%), Northern Alberta (+6%), Central Alberta (+17%), and Southern Alberta (+5%).
When asked which party leader they would prefer to see as Premier following the election, Rachel Notley (53%) leads Danielle Smith (47%) by 6%.
VOTER OPINION ON PARTY LEADERS
When asked if they have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of the party leaders, Notley has a net favourability of +5% (50% to 45%) while Danielle Smith has a net negative favourability of -16% (39% to 55%).
Notley has a net positive favourability across Alberta.
Danielle Smith has a net negative favourability across Alberta.
ELECTION OUTCOME PREFERENCE AMONGST VOTERS
45% of respondents stated that they would prefer either a UCP majority (42%) or a UCP minority (3%).52% of respondents stated that they would prefer either an NDP majority (44%) or an NDP minority (8%).
