From July 6-11, Sovereign North Strategies Inc. conducted a live call survey of Alberta residents. Calls were made to landline and mobile numbers across the province. Total responses from those self-identifying as decided voters were 2861. Within this, 922 resided in the City of Calgary and 763 resided in the City of Edmonton. The sample’s data has been weighted to reflect the age/sex composition in Alberta as per the 2021 Census.
Respondents were asked a series of questions regarding vote intention, favourability of major party leaders, trust of leaders on important issues, and if they felt the province was moving in the right or wrong direction.
Though the UCP maintains a slight lead provincially due to higher support levels in rural areas, the NDP leads in both Calgary and Edmonton. NDP leader Naheed Nenshi also shows a commanding lead in favourability ratings in both major metropolitan areas.
On the issues, voters are overall more likely to trust the NDP leader regarding healthcare and affordability, though by a smaller margin on the latter. Overall sentiment indicates that voters feel the province is moving in the wrong direction by a wide margin.
Results indicate that high unfavourability ratings for UCP leader Danielle Smith are hurting her party’s overall popular support. If a hypothetical election were to be held tomorrow, it would be likely that the NDP would form government due to the efficiency of their vote in seat-rich urban areas.
